"Matthew Berry, ESPN. Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? Leave him there for the next guy to take him. Jordan McNamara: Malcom Brown drew the starter role in the first preseason game, and the team has shown the willingness to change starters against conventional wisdom when Gaskin was a surprise starter in Week 1. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. That makes me want to be high on Josh Jacobs, but unfortunately, all reports point to a backfield by committee. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. His career YPC was 3.9. He's never carried the ball more than 132 times in a season. McKissic this offseason and added Alabama running back Brian Robinson Jr Jr. in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB17. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris will likely struggle behind his offensive line and may not garner an elite share of red zone touches. It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. Thats the first thing we notice. In 2019, the Lions tried to steal him away with a restricted free agent offer. Gaskin has an RB2 ceiling, but an RB3 value is a much stronger likelihood than many realize, whether it's Brown or a summer free-agent acquisition like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, or a recent starter a team lets go to make room for an emerging force. Jamal Lewis 18. Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football. 15 receptions, 111 yards, less than a TD per year. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. 20 20. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. 21 RB Sleepers. However, I would ask - where is the upside to tilt a league here? Dillon a lot, and reports from OTAs have been promising. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. First, Johnson turns 30 in December, and considering all the injuries he's dealt with in his NFL career, it's hard to see him aging well. Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. This three-headed committee with a healthy Jones is bad news for Fournette and means he is way overvalued at current ADP. Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. The 2021 season will either change from the norm of what we have seen from Edmonds in the past or a new role where he flourishes with an increase in volume. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. The Raiders are sure to recoup as much production as they can on the $8.5 million guarantee they gave Drake on a two-year deal, so this will look closer to a committee than a true lead-back situation. Gordon is a massive red flag at his ADP. Barkley could hit on pure talent and above-average recuperative ability, but everything else is going against him to return value on his lofty ADP. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. 5. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. Wait until next year. The only reason Johnson had fantasy value last year was a superhuman effort from Deshaun Watson to move the offense and produce points. Can he still be fantasy-relevant? In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. Even if he receives most of the early-down and passing game work, it still wont be very valuable on a putrid offense. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. Here's our list of the greatest 30 running backs in NFL history. He also is a touchdown liability -- he's scored 5, 6, and 4 touchdowns in three of his four seasons (11 the other season), which had led to finishing outside the Top 25 each of those years. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years. Sigmund Bloom: One year after the signing of Gordon indicated a lack of faith in Phillip Lindsay -- that bore out with Lindsay being allowed to leave in free agency this offseason -- the Broncos moved up in the second round to take Javonte Williams, indicating a lack of faith in Gordon. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club. With talented guys like Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers. . McKissic, one the league's better pass-catching backs. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. We've seen running backs repeatedly return from severe knee injuries; very seldom do they return the following year and have a memorable fantasy season. So as we can see, Bettis had about the 9th best run blocking offensive line in the NFL during his career. He also spent his first 5 years on the saints, where he got 20 carries exactly 2 times there. Chad Parsons: As much as Taylor is an overt talent and a potentially elite RB1 in a best-case scenario. Gaskin was a revelation versus his cost a year ago but is a buyer beware in 2021. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. Andy Hicks: If people are using a fourth or fifth-round pick on Myles Gaskin, they will end up disappointed. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. Jason Garrett was one of the most uninspiring play-callers in the league last year. Expect some early-season force-feeding of Etienne until there's a realization that the usage is predictable and inefficient. Marshall Faulk 7. Nyheim Hines is one of the premier pass-catching options, and Marlon Mack's health is a wildcard in the Colts' backfield rotation. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. John Riggins 19. So what's the concern? As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. Matt Waldman: Many of my peers at Footballguys are worshippers of draft capital as a predictor of talent. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Ryan Hester: This isnt a knock on Harris, whose athletic profile and projected workload are things fantasy players dream of. Gibson was even in the game after Robinson was out. However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. . Andrew Davenport: Montgomery was the 26th-ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest through nine games last year. Along with McKissic, Gibson will have to contend with Brian Robinson Jr, a rookie from Alabama. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. Hes the favorite for running back targets, but the offense doesnt really throw to the running backs. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. Brown has always been a strong contributor inside the five-yard line scoring 9 rushing touchdowns in the last two years in that hot zone. Preseason may help a little. Single The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. There are backs going after Chubb who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage. But after he sat a game due to injury, the Bears' lead runner came out hot after their bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. Victoria Geary: Sanders has talent and breakaway ability, but he may not garner a large enough workload to be worth his ADP this season. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. His ADP has not shot up the draft boards as quickly as he propelled into fantasy relevance last year due to the almost non-existent target share he received in the passing game. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. The fact is, he never . Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. Etienne's selection early in the late first signals he should have an immediate opportunity, especially with a new coaching staff in place. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. Has no highlight reel. McKissic. His lack of use as a runner has to be a concern. Cam Akers, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB13. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Then we have the Taysom Hill conundrum. He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. Ryan Hester: He might not keep his job, his offense probably wont be great, hes not explosive, and hes on the wrong side of the running back career arc. There have been personnel changes and a change in offensive coordinator to Matt Canada. Walter Payton 5. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. The current regime did not select Robinson. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. But drafting him as a high-upside No. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. The notorious "Frankenstein" graphic did him no favors. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. He's more powerful and understands how to work between the tackles. Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. Simpson 13. J.D. However, James Robinson is a better runner than Etienne at this point. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). The first thing that pops out at us is that Jerome Bettis 3.9 YPC is a good deal lower than the offensive lines mark of 4.29 (ADY). Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. It is also quite possible that Gordon isn't even on the team by the time Week 1 rolls around. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB12. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. If you look at Bettis total career marks, you will see that he is 5th on the all time rushing yards list and 10th in TDs. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. Here are the NFL running backs with the most career touchdown runs over 50 yards (based on stats through 2016). I believe it is more accurate to measure a RB by per season averages, because running backs such as Jim Brown did not play long. Tony Dorsett 12. "The Philadelphia Story," on the other hand, was a comedy, a genre not often seen as Best Picture worthy. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . McDaniels is someone who deploys multiple backs throughout the course of the game. In addition, Antonio Gibson finished the year banged up and ceding snaps to McKissic. Johnson himself has acknowledged it, and the backs' usage in the first preseason game indicates frustration for anyone wanting to farm this barren land. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. Jim Brown Jim Brown spent a little less than a decade playing for the Cleveland Browns between 1957 and 1965, but that was enough time to prove he's likely the greatest running back to ever play the game and one of the greatest NFL players of all time. Montgomery hasn't turned a corner in his career arc. Thurman Thomas 14. Pat Fitzmaurice: The Buccaneers' playoff run was the best four-game stretch for Fournette since the early part of the 2019 season. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. The following represent the most overrated NFL player on each team. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Victoria Geary: Dobbins is an elite talent on the best rushing offense in the NFL. Raheem Mostert, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB31 | Consensus Projections RB35. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. It's possible that Las Vegas will lean on Jacobs, knowing he won't be back next year, but that goes against McDaniels' past style of play. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Avoid. Crimson Tide skill players have been pretty good coming into the NFL recently, and Robinson's early start to camp has been generating buzz. As a model for other running backs, one of the greatest running backs of all time is a horrible example. His career marks are high because he played long (13 yrs) and was consistent. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. Green Bay seems to like A.J. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Instead, McKissic is a receiving-centric option where targets will be at a premium considering the competition in Washington, which was not present in the 2020 version with notable wide receiver additions Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown. Notre Dame's Kyren Williams was one of them and Georgia's James Cook was the other player named. Drew Davenport: The memories of Johnson dominating in Arizona are still following him into this offseason. If he is still on the opening day roster, Gordon's workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Henry has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, and that limited production as a receiver is an issue. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? But he's 29, he's undersized, he had a hard time staying healthy last year, he adds little as a pass catcher, and the San Francisco backfield is awfully crowded now. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Pittsburghs front five looks nothing like last years group. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. Kudos to James Robinson. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Tevin Coleman was specifically brought in because he knows the run-blocking schemes the Jets will employ this year, and Ty Johnson hasn't gone anywhere either. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB14 | Consensus Projections RB10. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB20 | Consensus Projections RB20. I was reading an article the other day about the greatest power backs of all time and Jerome Bettis was third on the list (right behind Jim Brown and Larry Csonka and right ahead of Earl Campbell). most overrated running backs of all time. The Ravens have had the #1 rushing offense in the league for the last two years straight but have finished 31st overall in total running back targets in that same time span. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? Top 10 Most Overrated Athletes of All Time It's not that they aren't great players, they just aren't everything we've been led to believe. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. From Weeks 13 through 17, Dobbins received a measly two total targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Phil Alexander: Beware of drafting running backs based solely on their perceived opportunity. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. And was brought back by a new staff that keeps saying he will be a significant part of the offense. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Yeah, us, too. That is not the stat line of an elite RB at all. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. Mike Davis, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB23. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. Adrian Peterson 10. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. A veteran, a trade, or another team's roster cut is more likely to be the bigger threat. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. I'm out. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. J.D. By the season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. Links to similar discussions on other positions: 12 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends28 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 10 Quarterbacks12 Tight Ends23 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 9 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends15 Wide Receivers13 Running Backs. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should.
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